Estimating Potential Increase in Hospitalizations and Deaths Associated with the Emergence of the Omicron Variant in North Carolina
Overview:
With the dominance of the highly transmissible Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, the COVID-19 pandemic has surged again in the United States. Our goal is to evaluate the impact of the emergence of the Omicron variant on hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19 under different estimates of transmission, immunity escape, and severity and uncertain population behavior. We utilized a stochastic, agent-based simulation populated with census-tract level data of North Carolina to demonstrate that increasing booster vaccine uptake and ensuring that NPIs remain in place is essential to avoid potentially significant increases in hospitalizations and mortality associated with the emergence of the Omicron variant.
Speaker:
Maria Mayorga, PhD, is a professor of Personalized Medicine and Director of Graduate Recruitment and Success in the Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at North Carolina State University (NC State). She received her MS and PhD degrees in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research from the University of California, Berkeley. Her research interests include predictive models in health care, health care operations management, emergency response, and humanitarian logistics. She has authored over 90 publications and received several awards and grants (NIH and NSF, among others) during her academic career, including the distinguished National Science Foundation CAREER Award for her work to incorporate patient choice into predictive models of health outcomes. Her current research focuses on the impact of individual behavior on population health.
Originally recorded on Wednesday, February 23, 2022, as part of CHOIR's
Overview:
With the dominance of the highly transmissible Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, the COVID-19 pandemic has surged again in the United States. Our goal is to evaluate the impact of the emergence of the Omicron variant on hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19 under different estimates of transmission, immunity escape, and severity and uncertain population behavior. We utilized a stochastic, agent-based simulation populated with census-tract level data of North Carolina to demonstrate that increasing booster vaccine uptake and ensuring that NPIs remain in place is essential to avoid potentially significant increases in hospitalizations and mortality associated with the emergence of the Omicron variant.
Speaker:
Maria Mayorga, PhD, is a professor of Personalized Medicine and Director of Graduate Recruitment and Success in the Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at North Carolina State University (NC State). She received her MS and PhD degrees in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research from the University of California, Berkeley. Her research interests include predictive models in health care, health care operations management, emergency response, and humanitarian logistics. She has authored over 90 publications and received several awards and grants (NIH and NSF, among others) during her academic career, including the distinguished National Science Foundation CAREER Award for her work to incorporate patient choice into predictive models of health outcomes. Her current research focuses on the impact of individual behavior on population health.